Each of the regions we have been modeling continues to make good progress against COVID-19 and some relaxation of the restrictions on people movement are being discussed or applied carefully with a view to avoiding second and later waves.
The numbers of infectious appear to have peaked clearly in Italy and the US. The Ireland data has been harder to read because of around 3000 positive test results delivered three weeks late; without a definitive restatement of the correct dates for those case numbers, it is difficult to be confident of the Ireland parameters at this time.
Models with current data are available as usual
here. Sample results are shown below. As usual in the graphs below, discrete symbols are measured data (cases and deaths) and curves of the same colour are model predictions of those data.
Italy:
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| Predictive model fit to known cases and reported deaths from Italy indicates a peak in the number of infectious in mid March. |
US:
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| Predictive model fit to known cases and reported deaths from Italy indicates a peak in the number of infectious at end March. |
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